Number Crunching

Prepare yourself - this post will include a lot of numbers.

Dave was added to The Register on March 3rd. With a score of 5.6, he is now 46 out of 141.

Allow me to explain the register, and to put his numbers into context. This way, you can share our anxiety for the next few months.

The Register
To run through the past year, Dave has passed an test, written essays, passed an oral exam, received medical clearance and received security clearance. Once all of those hoops have been jumped, each candidate is placed on The Register. This is essentially HR's list of bodies eligible to begin training. You see, Dave can not simply be sent out into the world as a diplomat. He must begin his Foreign Service career with a series of training classes in Washington, DC. State offers these classes approximately every 6 weeks. Here are the start dates for upcoming classes:

March 29
May 10
June 21
August 2
September 13

HR invites nearly 100 students to each training class. That's about 20 from each cone. (Remember cones or tracks? This is the candidate's chosen career track. Dave chose Political. There's also Management, Economics, Consular and Public Diplomacy).

Placed at #46 on the political register, we could assume that Dave would in the 3rd group of 20 political candidates and therefore called to the August class (March's class is already full). But its more complicated than that.

People arrive at their place on the register by two statistics - their score, and the date they hit the register. Dave's score is 5.6. He hit the register on March 3rd. Anyone with a 5.6 or lower who arrives on the register from now on will be behind him. But anyone with a score of 5.7 or higher will hit the register above him. This could potentially pull him lower on the list - an acquaintance was 68 out of 68 when she first hit the register, and has fallen to 83 out of 97 within only 2 months.

People also have the option of going DNC at any time. Going DNC is adding your name to the Do Not Call list. Dave has already added his name to the Do Not Call list for May, because we expect a baby to be born on or near the start date. A move from China between now and then is not in the cards. But many other people are on the DNC list as well, meaning that invitations always dip lower on the register than #20. The February class called #40 and the October class called #54.

This is where it becomes a real gamble. No one can guess how many people will join the register in the next few months, or estimate how high their score. No one can guess how many people will stay on or off of the DNC list - although we assume that a fair number have been waiting for the end of the school year.

Here's our anxiety-ridden speculation:
We speculate that most DNC candidates are waiting for the end of the school year, and will come off of the DNC list for the June and August classes.
We know that Uncle H-- will move us in mid-July, if Dave has not already resigned.
We worry that there will be an extra move before our arrival in DC, costing both ourselves and Uncle H-- a good chunk of money, and costing the girls and I a good chunk of stress and discomfort.

Hence the planning for two separate moves.

We're hoping and praying for an invitation to the June or August class, and we may spend some time on pins and needles until we find out for sure.