The Political Department

Big news out of our household's Political Department today.

Dave's feeling nervous tonight, and feels I should make it very clear that this is not HIS blog.  I am not writing as a representative of the U.S. government and I do not have access to any non-public information.  Should the New York Times choose to reprint this, they would have to quote an unnamed blogger who lives in Caracas.  They could not quote a U.S. Diplomat.

President Hugo Chavez just never stops keeping it interesting in Venezuela.  The man was re-elected to his second term back in October, and the Constitution states he will be sworn in tomorrow - January 10th, 2013.

But, he's not coming.

Apparently, Chavez is so sick that he can't make his way to his own swearing in.  He is being treated for cancer in Cuba, and the public have not seen or heard from him for a month now.  Official word is that he is recuperating from cancer surgery and dealing with a respiratory virus, but is in good spirits and expected to recover soon.

Just not soon enough to be sworn in as President for a second term.

So, this is pretty exciting.  Because when he's not sworn in tomorrow, Venezuela no longer has a president.

Pretty cool, huh?

Okay, so there's lots of ways this could go down:

#1 - Vice-President Maduro and his crew have stated that Chavez doesn't really need to be inaugurated, because he's already the president and everyone already loves him.  They claim that his uninterrupted service should continue as such.

Problem with this argument is A - it is pretty clearly unconstitutional, and B - his presidency has been interrupted by his cancer, so this argument would lead to his having stopped being president when he went in for the surgery which has left him out of touch with his people and therefore not governing.

#2 - The leader of the National Assembly could take power.  This is the Constitutional route, that Diosdado Cabello become the Acting President until such time as Chavez could be sworn in or new elections are triggered.  Should Chavez die, elections must be held within 30 days.  That's really fast.

This would be exciting because it pits two Chavistas against each other in the power grab.  Should Cabello become acting president, Maduro's eventual road to elected president would not be so smooth.  Especially because its not entirely clear that one would support the other.

#3 - The opposition support the Constitutional route of an Acting President.  But they've also asked the Supreme Court to demand release of Chavez's health records and an accurate statement of his current health.  The Supreme Court said no - they also ruled that option #1 was cool, so I think we see where they stand on interpretation of the Constitution.

Now, this is exciting because if Maduro and Chavez keep the reins as President anyway, many call it a coup.  The military has openly supported this option, which I think makes it a bit of a military coup.  Dave says a military coup is something else.  It places many international governments in an awkward position, because they will have to choose between supporting a coup on the one-hand and making their oil fountain rather tenuous on the other hand.

Fun times!