Speculating on the Uncertain Future

Everyone we speak with asks one of these questions every few weeks or so. To keep y'all in the loop, here is the Current Speculation.

Foreign Service

Remember that the U.S. government hires its diplomats from five lists. Dave currently sits on two lists - Political and Economic. He has good (not great, but good) standing on each list. He has been on the Political list for about 10 months, with another 10 months to go. His position dropped dramatically on that list, but has been steadily creeping up again over the last few months. He has been on the Economic list for about 1 month, with another 17 months to go. His position is pretty good. Good, but not great.

Were the Foreign Service still hiring at last year's rates, I would feel confident of an invitation to one of this year's classes. However, the U.S. government's 2011 fiscal year continues to operate under a Continuing Resolution rather than a budget. The prevailing wisdom says that we will probably go the entire year without a budget, waiting to approve the 2012 budget instead. Speculation says that they will continue to hire diplomats, but that the hiring will slow.

Dave's good, but not great position on each list means that he is a viable contender for any class, but not a shoe-in. The next class begins in mid-May, and we're hoping for an invitation. The girls would move near the end of their school year, and potentially begin the next year in their new home. We could fly home for the summer, and on someone else's dime. We could attend Matt's wedding. And we could get started on the next phase of our lives!

Job Prospects

But, the current political climate leaves no guarantees on hiring anywhere in the federal government. Had we waited this long and still not learned it, we know now that there is no sure thing in the foreign service until your start date. Dave is now looking into Plan's B and C.

Plan B is to stay with Uncle H-- for the near future. He enjoys the work and the travel right now (although not so much the Living Apart From His Family). And he will transition this summer into a position he's excited about. That transition would pull us out of Shenzhen, either back into Shanghai or on to Singapore. At this point, it seems that we can choose between the two. Any votes?

Plan C is to make a more radical change in about a year, and so it includes staying with Uncle H-- for a while. Under this plan, Dave will begin checking out graduate programs and dream jobs to learn what would get him there. Does an economist for the Brookings Institute need a PhD in economics? Then we'd better get started on that. Currently, this plan includes lots of dreaming and research. Then it includes beefing up the resume, sending in applications, and then going broke for a few years.

Adoption

This is why Plan C must wait a year or so.

The Adoption is still on hold until Annika's 1st birthday, on May 5th. I am still hoping to push off receiving our match until the fall, when Annika would be at least 15 months old. I do not know how much control we have over this. It is possible we will receive our match in the middle of May, in which case we would need an awful lot of prayer.

Picking up Mei Mei this year would be a good reason to stay in China, either waiting out the Foreign Service or focusing more on other career options. Also, the adoption requires a certain amount of income and a certain amount of savings. Best not to cease the income and begin depletion of the savings until after Mei Mei arrives.


So, there's our uncertainty in a rather wordy nutshell. Either way, we will be leaving Shenzhen this summer. Whether to the states and a brand new career, or to Big City, Asia and excitement in the corporate world is yet to be seen. March should be our next step. I expect to know by mid-March whether or not we will move to D.C., and Dave expects to solidify our moving plans with Uncle H-- at about that time. So, look for more updates in about 1 month's time.